Trading 2014


Here’s a quick, random list of some of my trading/economic views for 2014. Eventually I’ll expand, add and come up with even better ones. By the end of the year it should be perfect!

– lighten up on equities. They’re overbought and expensive, will become choppier and go nowhere for most of the year. If not down outright.

– avoid junk credit, and covenant-lite. As QE slows, they’ll suffer more, and credit spreads and equity volatility always go hand in hand.

– sell the Euro v anything (but the Yen, I don’t get the yen, never have, never will.) The Draghi will have to beg and steal and devalue to save the periphery and get some growth into the zombie countries.

– buy Apple, sell Twitter – the reverse of what people have done in 2013, just for fun. The trade’s due some bounce, even if long-term it might be right.

– short France bonds – they are the next big issue (though it might be 2015).

– don’t come crying to me if you lose money, either by following my advice or doing the opposite. The money is yours, so is the responsibility. 

– always remember the market is made up by people who are faster, with better systems and information and lower morals than you. Though you might get lucky…

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